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Coffee supply increased in October, but Arabica inventories declined. A look at price volatility, Vietnam's new harvest and the implications for green coffee buyers.
Green coffee supply increased in October, but Arabica and Robusta responded differently. Robusta weakened as inventories grew and Vietnam's new harvest began. Arabica experienced several rallies before returning close to its early-October level by the end of the month.
Arabica: volatility rather than a steady decline
The December ICE Arabica contract stood at around 288 US cents per pound in early October. Prices traded above 300 cents during the month, were around 295 in mid-October and reached approximately 285 cents per pound by month-end. The month was therefore defined by volatility: the late-month correction does not mean prices fell continuously throughout October.
Increasing Brazilian shipments and a weaker Brazilian real added pressure. A weaker local currency makes dollar-denominated coffee sales more attractive to producers and exporters, potentially encouraging more coffee to reach the market.
Arabica inventories failed to rebuild
ICE-certified Arabica stocks declined from approximately 260,000 bags in early October to 225,000 by month-end. Improving supply had yet to translate into a sustained recovery in exchange inventories.
Around 44,000 bags of Brazilian Arabica were awaiting grading. These could replenish certified stocks if they pass inspection, but are not yet part of that inventory. The limited buffer leaves the market sensitive to shipping delays and weather developments.
Brazil: more coffee moves into export channels
Brazilian shipment data showed approximately 4.54 million bags as of 29 October. This is a preliminary figure, not the final monthly total. The increasing flow of coffee to buyers matters because it eases concerns about nearby availability.
Weather also supported supply expectations. Early in the month, attention centred on follow-up rainfall after flowering. By late October, generally favourable conditions and good fruit setting were reported across most regions. These observations concern the next crop and do not guarantee its eventual size.
Robusta: inventories rise as harvesting begins
Improving supply was more apparent in Robusta. ICE-certified stocks increased from approximately 5,400 to 6,800 lots during October. Vietnam's new harvest began, with the first new-crop coffee entering the market, although farmer selling remained limited at the start.
The November Robusta contract stood at around USD 3,450 per metric tonne in early October and approximately 3,325 in mid-October. By month-end, the quoted benchmark was the January contract, at around USD 3,176 per metric tonne. These observations indicate a weaker pricing environment, but the contract change prevents a precise monthly percentage comparison.
What October means for green coffee buyers
The main result was improving availability, particularly in Robusta. However, supply conditions still varied by origin and quality. Colombian washed Arabica remained more constrained than Brazilian supply. El Niño continued to pose a risk to future crops, particularly in Vietnam during the dry season.
When planning purchases, compare futures prices with the price, shipment timing and available volume of the specific lot. Low Arabica inventories mean the improving overall supply picture still leaves room for sharp price movements.
Explore origins and coffee specifications in the Green Coffee Hub catalogue.
Based on market reports by Central Coffee Roasting (CCR).
