Green Coffee Market in Week 34 of 2026: Arabica Remains in Short Supply
The green coffee market remains highly volatile. In Week 34, Arabica found support from exceptionally low exchange-certified stocks and continuing logistics risks in Colombia, while the accelerating Brazilian harvest increased downward pressure on prices.
Nearby Arabica supply remains tight, while the Robusta market looks considerably more balanced due to strong Vietnamese exports and rising exchange inventories. In the medium term, market attention is increasingly shifting toward new-crop availability from Brazil and weather risks associated with a strengthening El Niño.
Prices declined, but Arabica remains in short supply
The ICE December Arabica contract traded at around 325 cents per pound, while the November Robusta contract was near USD 3,720 per metric ton. Both markets moved lower over the week.
However, lower futures prices do not mean that the Arabica supply situation has normalized. ICE-certified Arabica stocks fell to around 229,000 bags, their lowest level in approximately 2.75 years.
The spread between nearby and later Arabica contracts also remains unusually wide. This indicates that coffee available for immediate delivery is significantly more expensive than supply for later delivery.
This market structure makes Arabica particularly sensitive even to relatively small disruptions in physical supply, logistics, or exports.
For a broader view of recent Arabica and Robusta price dynamics, see our July 2026 green coffee market review.
Brazil accelerates its harvest
Brazil remains one of the main factors putting pressure on the market. By August 14, coffee harvesting across Cooxupé’s operating regions had reached 81.1%, compared with 74.6% one week earlier.
Harvest progress is still slightly behind last year, when 86.1% had been completed by the same date, but the gap is narrowing quickly. Dry weather is helping producers accelerate fieldwork: Minas Gerais received only around 0.6 mm of rainfall during the week.
As more new-crop coffee becomes available, physical supply is increasing. If Brazilian producers step up physical sales or futures hedging, pressure on Arabica prices could strengthen further.
At the same time, Brazil’s Arabica exports remain relatively subdued. In July, exports totaled approximately 1.82 million bags, down 8.9% year on year. Conilon exports, by contrast, remained strong.
Current green coffee offers from Brazil and other origins are available in the Green Coffee Hub catalog.
Colombian supply risks have eased
Following the major earthquake in western Colombia, the market initially feared significant disruptions to coffee exports.
Some coffee flows were rerouted through Caribbean ports, helping to avoid a complete interruption in exports. Available reporting indicates that the main issues are currently related to infrastructure damage and inland transportation rather than widespread damage to coffee production or processing facilities.
As a result, the immediate risk of a major shortage of Colombian Arabica has eased. However, delays in inland transport and export logistics remain possible.
Robusta remains more stable
The Robusta market continues to look more comfortable.
Exchange-certified Robusta stocks increased to 4,622 lots, while Vietnam continues to maintain strong export volumes. This is improving Robusta availability on the global market and limiting the potential for another sharp increase in prices.
In Indonesia, Asalan coffee traded at around IDR 68,000–69,000 per kilogram. Trading activity was moderate, while sellers were reluctant to lower nearby export offers in line with weaker futures prices.
As a result, the contrast between Arabica and Robusta is becoming increasingly clear: nearby Arabica supply remains tight, while the Robusta balance is gradually improving.
El Niño becomes the main forward weather risk
The next major risk factor for the coffee market is the strengthening El Niño.
According to the CCR report, NOAA expects El Niño to intensify through the end of 2026. Its July outlook assigned an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during the October–December period.
For the coffee market, this increases uncertainty around future crops. However, El Niño itself does not automatically mean lower production.
In the coming months, actual rainfall and temperature patterns across key coffee-producing regions in Brazil, Vietnam, and other origins will be more important than the climate phenomenon alone.
What is driving the market now
In the short term, Arabica continues to receive support from exceptionally low certified stocks and limited nearby supply. As a result, news about logistics, weather, or exports can still trigger sharp price movements.
At the same time, the fundamental picture is gradually changing: Brazil’s harvest is accelerating, Robusta availability is improving, and more new-crop coffee is becoming available on the physical market.
The market therefore remains caught between two opposing forces: a shortage of Arabica in the immediate term and the prospect of stronger supply in the months ahead. This tension is likely to keep coffee prices volatile through the end of August.
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